World Cup 2026 Sportsbooks: $50M Losses to France Windfall

⏱ 3 min read

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has delivered the biggest sports-betting event in US history — and one of the most volatile for operators. From June 11 through the July 14 semifinal, the tournament swung sportsbooks from heavy early losses to a significant liability-clearing windfall, all while prediction markets set volume records that are rewriting competitive benchmarks for the entire gambling industry.

DraftKings alone shed an estimated $50 million during the group stage, per Bank of America analysis reported by the Financial Times. That figure represented a meaningful share of the company's pre-tournament forecast of $1.1 billion in World Cup handle, as estimated by Deutsche Bank. Relief arrived on July 14, when Spain eliminated France 2–0 in the semifinal: DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM had all identified France as their single largest outstanding liability on outright winner markets.

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Group-Stage Losses: How Bettors Won Big

The group phase, which ran through late June, proved punishing for operators in two distinct ways: patriotic outright bets and high-value parlay payouts. Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover told the Financial Times that the USMNT's run to the round of 16 became the single biggest liability for most US books during the group stage, with pre-tournament odds of 50-1 to 60-1 slashed to roughly 20-1 as the US progressed.

England's 4–2 opening win over Croatia produced the tournament's highest early wagering activity. Flutter — parent company of FanDuel and Paddy Power — paid out UK bettors roughly $5.5 million on that result alone, though a subsequent 0–0 draw against Ghana, per Flutter's own Bank of America analysts, "more than balanced the books."

The most acute pain came on June 23, when Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappé each scored twice in the same matchday. Parlay bettors who combined all three to bag braces collected at odds ranging from +8,000 to +13,000 across major platforms, costing books millions in a single session. Operators' simultaneous push into in-play betting and heavyweight promotional offers — designed to compete with prediction markets for new customers — amplified exposure on those outcomes.

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France's Exit Clears Operator Liabilities

By the time the semifinals arrived, France had become the market's consensus pick and the heaviest liability for every major US operator. At BetMGM, 94% of money staked on the Spain vs. France semifinal backed France to advance. Mbappé was the most-bet "anytime goalscorer" on both DraftKings and BetMGM throughout the tournament, and he attracted five times more prop action than any other player for that match alone.

Spain's 2–0 shutout on July 14 settled a mountain of losing France tickets. Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike, quoted by Fox Sports, had earlier confirmed France as Caesars' biggest futures liability, noting he hoped for a Spain-England final — a result that would produce near-ideal book results. The final is set for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, with Spain facing Argentina.

Operator / Platform	World Cup Phase	Key Financial Event	Outcome
DraftKings	Group Stage	Est. $50M loss (Bank of America)	Negative — favorites won, parlays cashed
Flutter / FanDuel	Group Stage	England vs. Croatia payout ~$5.5M (UK)	Recovered via England–Ghana draw
BetMGM	Semifinal (July 14)	94% of semifinal money on France	Positive — Spain won 2–0
DraftKings / FanDuel / BetMGM	Tournament Winner	France was largest outright liability	Positive — France eliminated
Kalshi	Full Tournament (June)	Trading volume up 87.4% MoM to $31.5B	Positive — fee-based revenue model
Polymarket	Full Tournament (June)	World Cup winner market: $4B+ volume	Positive — fee-based revenue model

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Prediction Markets Hit Record Volume

While traditional sportsbooks absorbed group-stage hits, prediction market platforms ran the opposite direction. Kalshi and Polymarket (including its US-regulated arm) recorded a combined $44.8 billion in trading volume during June — a 75% jump from May's $25.7 billion, according to Sportsbook Review data. Kalshi drove most of that surge, climbing 87.4% month-over-month to $31.5 billion. Polymarket's international platform added $10.3 billion (up 45%), while its US arm grew to $3 billion from $1.8 billion.

The structure matters: prediction markets earn transaction fees rather than retaining losing bets. France's elimination settled hundreds of millions in contracts on both platforms, but the platforms' economics meant they profited from the volume of France's deep run — not from any one result. Kalshi's World Cup winner market alone attracted more than $832 million in bets, with roughly 35% of that money backing France. Polymarket's individual match contracts drew between $500,000 and $2 million each.

That growth is happening under legal pressure. More than a dozen US states have pursued action against Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing their sports-event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling. Multiple countries have issued exit demands to Polymarket. The regulatory fight is unresolved heading into the final.

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Long-Term Outlook for Operators

Despite the group-stage damage, industry analysts do not expect the tournament to be a net loss for major operators — for several reasons:

• Customer acquisition: DraftKings CEO Jason Robins described the World Cup pre-tournament as "a huge focal point for customer acquisition." Flutter CEO Peter Jackson called it "the biggest betting opportunity we'll have ever seen." Analysts at Citizens noted all major platforms — sportsbooks, brokerages, and prediction markets — converged to spend "hundreds of millions of dollars" acquiring new users during the tournament.
• Cross-sell value: New soccer bettors drawn in by the World Cup tend to migrate to NFL and NBA markets in the autumn. The acquisition cost is amortised across a longer lifetime value.
• Spain-Argentina final: Argentina entering as the defending champion and a heavy liability for books could be offset if Spain wins; conversely, an Argentina trophy would mean significant payouts on outright bets placed before the final. The event is, financially, still live.
• Same-game parlay risk: The losses on Messi-Haaland-Mbappé accumulator bets exposed the margin risk in SGP products. These bets carry house edges of 20–35% in theory, but mass-market events with correlated star-player outcomes can compress margins rapidly.

Meanwhile, US sportsbooks are tracking toward a potential record annual hold. Through Q1 2026, operators had already processed more than $40.47 billion in handle and generated $3.82 billion in GGR — a pace that exceeds the full-year 2025 record of $16.80 billion in gross gaming revenue on $165.58 billion in handle.

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Sources

Reporting draws on analyst notes, operator disclosures to trade press, and industry data trackers. Primary financial estimates originate with Bank of America and Deutsche Bank research circulated via the Financial Times.

We had high expectations for the tournament as a whole. But we're surpassing those expectations.

— Mark Bickerdike, Head of Soccer Trading, Caesars Sports · Fox Sports, July 13, 2026