UK illegal gambling could hit £33bn, BGC warns

⏱ 3 min read

The UK’s illegal gambling black market is on course to nearly double within three years, and the industry’s own trade body now wants the state to choke it off. On Monday, 8 June 2026, the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) published a five-point plan urging ministers, regulators, technology platforms and payment firms to act together against unlicensed operators targeting British bettors.

The numbers behind the call are stark. Independent forecasts from H2 Gambling Capital estimate that stakes placed with illegal operators could climb from £17 billion in 2025 to more than £33 billion by 2028 — a point at which almost one in every five pounds wagered online in Britain would sit outside the regulated market.

Why the BGC sounded the alarm

The BGC, which says it represents around 90% of Britain’s regulated betting and gaming sector, frames the black market as more than a commercial threat. Unlicensed sites pay no UK tax, run no age or identity checks, carry out no safer-gambling interventions and offer no route to redress when disputes arise. Chief Executive Grainne Hurst described the latest forecasts as a wake-up call for everyone involved in protecting consumers, warning that customers driven offshore lose every safeguard the licensed market is required to provide.

The intervention builds on a run of BGC research. Earlier figures from consultants Frontier Economics put annual black market staking at up to £4.3 billion, while data cited from WARC suggests illegal operators already account for close to half of all UK gambling advertising spend and could overtake the regulated market on ad volume by 2028.

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Inside the five-point plan

The plan is a list of asks aimed squarely at the infrastructure that keeps unlicensed sites visible and funded, rather than at consumers themselves. The BGC wants the Gambling Commission handed stronger powers to block sites and remove unlicensed apps, and it wants liability extended to the “enablers” — affiliates, hosts and payment processors — that service the black market.

Measure	Target	Intended effect
Shut down illegal advertising	Social media & search platforms	Remove unlawful gambling content before it reaches UK audiences
Block illegal websites	Gambling Commission powers	Faster takedowns of sites and unlicensed apps mimicking real brands
Block payments	Banks & payment providers	Cut off transactions linked to unlicensed operators
Penalise enablers	Affiliates, hosts, processors	“Meaningful penalties” for knowingly servicing illegal sites
Criminal sanctions	Operators & backers	Tougher punishment to deter and disrupt organised activity

The BGC welcomed the government’s newly created Black Market Taskforce but called it only a first step, pressing for binding coordination between regulators, law enforcement, banks and tech firms.

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What it means for operators and bettors

For licensed operators, the proposals double as a competitive argument: every pound lost to an unlicensed rival is untaxed, unregulated and beyond the reach of UK consumer protections. For bettors, the practical risk is concrete — no identity verification, no deposit controls and no recourse on withheld winnings.

• Unlicensed sites run no KYC or age checks, exposing minors and self-excluded players.
• Funds on offshore platforms carry no guarantee of payout or dispute resolution.
• Gambling Commission takedowns remain at an “early stage,” with new sites replacing blocked ones quickly.

None of the five points is law yet; they are recommendations. But they signal where enforcement pressure is likely to build, and any move toward platform and payment blocking would reshape how unlicensed traffic reaches the UK.

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The tax backdrop driving migration

The plan lands against a contested fiscal backdrop. Operators argue that rising costs — including a Remote Gaming Duty increase toward 40% — are themselves pushing price-sensitive players toward cheaper, unregulated alternatives. BGC analysis based on EY modelling has warned that tax changes could divert billions in stakes to the black market and threaten thousands of UK jobs. The regulated sector contributes roughly £6.8 billion in gross value added and about £4 billion in tax each year, supporting more than 109,000 jobs.

That tension — tougher enforcement on one side, higher duties on the other — is the unresolved core of UK gambling policy heading into the second half of 2026.

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Sources

Cross-checked against the BGC’s own statements and four independent trade outlets reporting the 8 June 2026 announcement.

These forecasts are a wake-up call for everyone involved in protecting consumers.

— Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive, Betting and Gaming Council · UK black market plan, June 2026