Dutch Gambling Tax Hike Misses EU Revenue Target by €265m

⏱ 3 min read

A joint monitoring report by the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) has confirmed what operators warned for over a year: the Netherlands gambling tax hike has badly missed its revenue targets while simultaneously driving players toward unlicensed sites. The rate climbed from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025, then to 37.8% of gross gaming revenue on 1 January 2026 — the steepest gambling tax in the EU’s major regulated markets.

The Treasury projected the two-step increase would generate €108 million in additional revenue in 2025 and a further €216 million in 2026. Actual gains came in at roughly €2 million in 2025 and an estimated €57 million in 2026 — a combined shortfall of approximately €265 million against projections.

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Why the Tax Base Shrank

The KSA’s report attributes the revenue gap primarily to a contracting tax base rather than any single policy failure. Several overlapping measures introduced since mid-2024 compressed gross gaming revenue across both online and land-based channels:

• Monthly net deposit limits set at €300 for players aged 18–24 and €700 for those aged 24 and over, introduced on 1 October 2024
• A ban on television programme sponsorship from 1 July 2024, extended to sports teams, clubs and kits from 1 July 2025
• Tighter KSA compliance requirements and a mandatory financial capacity test (draagkrachttoets) for players seeking higher deposit thresholds
• The natural fade of the post-UEFA Euro 2024 betting uplift

Land-based footfall fell sharply in parallel: visits to arcades and Holland Casino locations dropped from 4.6 million in Q1 2025 to 4.1 million in Q1 2026 — an 11% year-on-year decline.

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Illegal Market Overtakes Regulated Sector

The most alarming finding in the wider data sits beyond the tax receipts. The channelisation rate — the share of gambling spend flowing to licensed operators — fell below 50% for the first time since the Dutch online market opened, with the illegal segment now accounting for an estimated 53% of total spend. Industry body VNLOK now estimates the unregulated Dutch market exceeds €1 billion a year — broadly matching the size of the entire licensed online sector.

Reports of illegal offers to the KSA surged 34%, reaching 2,005 cases, and VNLOK counted more than 70,000 gambling advertisements on Meta platforms in Q4 2025 alone, with over 95% originating from unlicensed operators. The KSA launched a dedicated project targeting the hosting and payment infrastructure used by these sites, though enforcement timelines remain unclear.

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Operator and State Entity Losses

The squeeze is not limited to private operators. Both of the Netherlands’ state-controlled gambling entities have reported direct hits from the tax escalation:

• Holland Casino saw profit before corporate tax fall by approximately €27 million in 2025 and €54 million in 2026 attributable to the higher rate
• Nederlandse Loterij projected reductions in corporate tax, statutory levies and profits of €16 million in 2025 and roughly €34 million in 2026

The regulated online sector saw its gross gaming revenue fall 18.5% across 2025 as deposit caps and advertising restrictions reduced active player volumes and average spend per account.

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Revenue vs. Projection: By the Numbers

Year	Tax Rate (GGR)	Projected Additional Revenue	Actual Additional Revenue	Shortfall
2025	34.2%	€108 million	~€2 million	~€106 million
2026	37.8%	€216 million	~€57 million (est.)	~€159 million

Source: Joint monitoring report, Dutch Ministry of Finance & KSA, published June 2026.

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What Comes Next

The Dutch government has so far ruled out reversing the tax rate, despite significant operator lobbying and the KSA’s own warnings that the hike poses structural risks to player protection by accelerating migration to unlicensed sites. The regulator’s 2026 enforcement priorities — published earlier this year — already named illegal site crackdowns, under-24 protection, and tougher checks on licensed operators as the three headline focuses, suggesting the authority is acutely aware its licensed base is under strain.

A broader cross-operator deposit limit — where a single player’s spend would be measured across all licensed operators rather than individually at each — is expected to be implemented later in 2026, adding a further layer of constraint on licensee revenues. The KSA has framed the measure as necessary for responsible gambling, but operators argue it will push recreational players directly to offshore sites with no Dutch consumer protections.

For operators active in or considering the Dutch market, the picture is now unambiguous: a near-40% effective tax burden (including the 1.95% gambling levy), tightening deposit rules, a licensed market that has ceded the majority of real-money volume to unregulated competition, and a government unwilling to recalibrate despite its own regulator’s warnings.

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Sources

Primary and secondary sources consulted for this report, in order of editorial weight.

The tax base has shrunk so significantly that even a rate approaching 40% of GGR cannot fill the hole — and every percentage point added pushes more players to operators who collect no Dutch taxes at all.

— Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), Joint Monitoring Report with the Dutch Ministry of Finance · June 2026