World Cup Betting Could Hit $4.3B at US Sportsbooks

⏱ 3 min read

The 2026 FIFA World Cup opens on June 11 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City and concludes with the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19 — and research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) projects US online sportsbooks will absorb between $2.32 billion and $4.33 billion in handle across the 104-match tournament. That range represents a gain of up to 182% over the estimated $900 million to $1 billion wagered on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar — a figure that was itself considered a landmark for soccer betting in the United States.

EKG's base case of $2.82 billion alone would exceed Super Bowl LX (roughly $1.7 billion wagered on the New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks in February 2026) and draw within range of the 2026 NCAA basketball tournament (estimated at more than $3 billion). At the high end, $4.33 billion would make the World Cup the single largest-handle event ever recorded in the US legal betting market. With the tournament less than a week away, operators across the country are finalising promotional budgets and stress-testing risk models for what the industry is treating as its most consequential summer on record.

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Why the Handle Could Triple From 2022

Three structural factors separate 2026 from the Qatar tournament. First, the field expanded from 32 to 48 teams and the schedule grew from 64 to 104 matches, with 78 games staged across US venues in 16 cities — that is 40 extra betting windows spread across the North American summer. Second, legal online sports betting now operates in 39 states, a materially larger footprint than existed in late 2022 when the last World Cup was played; several major states, including Wisconsin, only legalised online wagering in April 2026. Third, a survey of US sports bettors found that roughly three-quarters intend to wager on the tournament, reflecting elevated soccer engagement among casual bettors drawn by the home-soil setting and accessible game times.

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DraftKings and FanDuel Set to Dominate

EKG projects DraftKings and FanDuel will jointly command roughly 70% of US World Cup handle — approximately $1.02 billion for DraftKings and $945 million for FanDuel. Fanatics Sportsbook and Hard Rock Bet are forecast to split a combined 14% share, worth around $396 million. DraftKings EVP and GM of Sports Greg Karamitis described the tournament as a structural inversion of the industry's quietest period: summer has historically been soft for US sportsbooks, but a six-week World Cup fully reshapes the calendar for operators who have spent months building dedicated soccer markets and promotions.

The table below benchmarks the projected World Cup handle against major recent US wagering events.

Event	Date	Est. US Handle	Format / Notes
World Cup 2022	Nov–Dec 2022	~$950M	32 teams, 64 matches; Qatar
Super Bowl LX	Feb 2026	~$1.7B	Single game; Patriots vs. Seahawks
March Madness 2026	Mar 2026	~$3B+	NCAA basketball tournament
World Cup 2026 — Low	Jun–Jul 2026	$2.32B	EKG; early USMNT exit
World Cup 2026 — Base	Jun–Jul 2026	$2.82B	EKG; USMNT exits Round of 16
World Cup 2026 — High	Jun–Jul 2026	$4.33B	EKG; deep USMNT run

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The USMNT Variable: A $2 Billion Swing

EKG characterises the 2026 World Cup handle forecast as having "unusually asymmetric upside." In the base case, the USMNT (ranked No. 16 globally by FIFA) advances past the group stage but exits by the Round of 16. An early group-stage elimination would push total US handle toward the low end of $2.32 billion, while a deep run to the semifinals or final would materially amplify media coverage, casual bettor participation, and operator marketing spend — EKG's ceiling in that scenario reaches $4.33 to $4.4 billion, surpassing every other US wagering record including the 2026 NCAA tournament. The roughly $2 billion gap between the low and high cases is itself larger than the total handle generated by Super Bowl LX.

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The Global Picture: $60 Billion Worldwide

London-based data firm H2 Gambling Capital estimates $60 billion in total global handle through regulated sportsbooks during the tournament, a 71% increase over its 2022 projections. Of that, $5.7 billion is forecast across the three host nations. Mexico leads in soccer's share of overall betting expenditure, followed by Canada and the US; in absolute dollar volume, however, the scale of the American market ensures US operators will generate the largest totals. Brazil — which legalised and regulated sports betting since the Qatar tournament — also features prominently in H2's global numbers, reflecting just how much the addressable legal market has expanded in four years.

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Prediction Markets Enter the Fray

The 2026 World Cup will also serve as the first major live test of sports prediction markets at scale in the United States. FIFA named ADI Predictstreet — owned by Abu Dhabi's royal family and licensed in Gibraltar — as its official prediction market partner in April 2026, but ADI currently lacks regulatory clearance from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), limiting its direct access to American customers. Fanatics Markets has launched a dedicated World Cup hub in partnership with ADI, giving US-based users exposure to FIFA-branded event contracts through an intermediary structure that sidesteps the CFTC obstacle for now. How prediction market volume tracks against traditional sportsbook handle over the six-week tournament will be closely watched by both regulators and operators.

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Sources

Research, quotes, and data verified across the following primary and secondary sources. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming and H2 Gambling Capital are the primary data providers; casino.org, SBR, Inside World Football, and RealGM are the secondary sources used for cross-verification.

The World Cup is going to be a couple dozen Super Bowls back-to-back.

— Brian Josephs, VP of Americas, Sportradar · Via RealGM / ESPN, June 3, 2026