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NFL Pushes CFTC to Ban 'Easily Manipulable' Prediction Market Bets

The league is urging the federal regulator to outlaw injury wagers, first-play contracts, and player-prop bets vulnerable to manipulation, while calling for the minimum trading age to be raised from 18 to 21.

Category: iGaming News - USA · By Growl Games Editorial Team · Tue May 19 2026 · Updated Thu Jul 23 2026

NFL Pushes CFTC to Ban 'Easily Manipulable' Prediction Market Bets

Table of Contents

The NFL's Letter

The National Football League has formally asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to tighten the rules governing sports-related prediction market contracts. Brendon Plack, the NFL's senior vice president for government affairs and public policy, sent the letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on Friday, May 15. CNBC, which first reviewed the document, reported that the recommendations are aimed at preserving the integrity of the sport as the CFTC works through an active rulemaking process for platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Contracts the League Wants Banned

The NFL is asking the CFTC to prohibit three categories of event contracts. The first covers wagers tied to individual plays that one player can directly influence, such as a missed field goal, a missed extra point, or an incomplete pass. The second targets bets on outcomes that may be "knowable in advance," including which type of play a team runs on its opening possession. The third covers "inherently objectionable" markets, with bets on player injuries cited as the leading example. The league also wants the CFTC to create a unique certification process for player-performance contracts, replacing the current model in which platforms largely self-certify their own contracts.

Age Limit, Margin Trading, and Insider Trading

Plack also asked the CFTC to raise the minimum age for trading sports event contracts from 18 to 21, aligning it with the age limit used by most state-regulated sportsbooks. The NFL's letter calls for an outright ban on margin trading, warning that contracts that are "not fully collateralized" could amplify addictive behavior and loss exposure. On integrity, the letter urges the CFTC to require prediction market platforms to enter agreements with sports leagues that establish lists of prohibited participants, including league employees, and to direct the National Futures Association to share data with state gaming regulators to support enforcement.

Industry Backdrop

The NFL's filing follows similar comments submitted to the CFTC by the NBA, MLB, PGA Tour, and the NFLPA, MLBPA, NBPA, NHLPA, and MLSPA player unions, all submitted before the agency's April 30 comment deadline. Pressure on prediction markets has intensified as sports wagers have come to dominate the platforms' volumes; recent reporting has shown sports-related contracts accounting for the overwhelming majority of activity on Kalshi. The growth has weighed on listed sportsbook operators, with DraftKings and Flutter (the parent of FanDuel) seeing stock declines over the past year as prediction markets expanded.

The CFTC's Position

CFTC Chairman Selig has publicly maintained that prediction markets and sportsbooks are distinct, telling Axios earlier this month that the agency will regulate event contracts "as financial markets, not as entertainment." That position is the legal foundation of the CFTC's lawsuits against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona, filed on April 2, which seek federal court rulings that state gaming laws are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. Wisconsin filed its own suits against Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Crypto.com on April 24, deepening a national split that legal observers expect to reach the Supreme Court.

What Comes Next

The CFTC's rulemaking remains open, and any decision to adopt the NFL's requests would significantly reshape the contracts available on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood-routed markets. The outcome matters for licensed sportsbook operators because each integrity measure the NFL is asking for, particularly the 21-and-up age floor, the margin-trading ban, and the league-approved contract list, would narrow the gap between prediction markets and state-regulated sports betting. The agency has not yet indicated a timeline for finalizing its rules.

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