UK Illegal Gambling Set to Hit £33 Billion by 2028

⏱ 3 min read

UK illegal gambling stakes are forecast to nearly double to £33 billion by 2028, according to new research from H2 Gambling Capital that has reignited debate over whether tighter regulations are pushing British bettors toward unlicensed operators. The projection means almost one in five pounds staked online could escape UK oversight and taxation within three years.

The figures were released ahead of a May 21 Gambling Commission board meeting where proposals for financial risk assessments were under review. Industry body the Betting and Gaming Council warned the forecasts underline how increased regulatory friction could accelerate migration to offshore platforms that pay no tax, support no British jobs, and offer none of the protections required of licensed operators.

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Black Market Stakes Nearly Double in Three Years

Research by H2 Gambling Capital projects illegal gambling stakes will surge from £17 billion in 2025 to more than £33 billion by 2028. This represents 19.2% of all online betting and gaming stakes in the UK, up from approximately 8% in 2019 when black market turnover stood at around £5 billion.

The acceleration has been particularly sharp in recent years. Offshore betting volumes more than tripled between 2019 and 2025, reaching £16.6 billion last year, with both stakes and operator profits doubling between 2023 and 2025 alone. The share of gambling happening on regulated platforms has fallen from 97% to 92% over the same period.

Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the Betting and Gaming Council, described the forecasts as a wake-up call, warning that by 2028, almost one in five pounds staked online could be with illegal operators offering no UK consumer protections.

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Regulatory Context: Tax Hikes and Financial Checks

The illegal gambling projections arrive as the UK gambling sector adjusts to major policy shifts implemented by the Labour government. In April 2026, Remote Gaming Duty increased from 21% to 40%, with a new general betting duty rate of 25% for remote betting scheduled for April 2027.

Simultaneously, the Gambling Commission has been piloting financial risk assessments designed to identify customers in financial difficulty without imposing spending caps. The regulator's Director of Policy Ian Angus defended the measures at the Clarion Payment Providers Summit on May 20, insisting they are not affordability checks and would affect fewer than 3% of active accounts.

However, the Commission delayed a decision on full implementation following its May 21 board meeting, stating it required more time to assess the extensive evidence presented. Industry stakeholders had intensely lobbied ahead of the meeting, with some viewing it as a deadline for determining the checks' future.

Metric	2019	2025	2028 (Projected)
Illegal Stakes	£5 billion	£17 billion	£33 billion
Share of Total Online Stakes	~8%	~8%	19.2%
Regulated Market Share	97%	92%	80.8%

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Commission Response and Anti-Illegal Gambling Efforts

The Gambling Commission has ramped up enforcement against illegal operators, backed by £26 million in new government funding covering 2026–2027. In the last financial year, the regulator issued 741 cease-and-desist orders, reported 397,527 URLs to search engines resulting in 266,667 removals, and disrupted 1,134 websites through takedowns or geo-blocking.

The Commission has also joined the Department for Culture, Media and Sport's Illegal Gambling Taskforce, which is producing the first national risk assessment for Britain's unlicensed market. Ian Angus emphasised at the Clarion Summit that the regulator would examine drivers of consumer demand to the illegal market and support innovation aligned with licensing objectives.

Key enforcement activities include:

• 741 cease-and-desist orders issued to unlicensed operators
• 397,527 URLs reported to search engines for delisting
• 266,667 URLs successfully removed from search results
• 1,134 websites disrupted via takedowns or geo-blocking

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Economic Impact and Channelisation Risks

The regulated betting and gaming sector currently supports 109,000 jobs across the UK, contributes £6.8 billion to the economy annually, and generates £4 billion in tax revenue. Unlicensed operators contribute none of this while operating outside UK safer gambling requirements including self-exclusion schemes, deposit limits, and complaint resolution procedures.

The British Horseracing Authority has been among the most vocal critics of financial risk assessments, estimating betting operators could lose £900 million annually if the checks are implemented as proposed, with horse racing itself potentially losing £250 million over five years.

Flutter Entertainment CEO Peter Jackson warned ahead of the May 21 board meeting that the checks risk sending more customers to illegal operators, hitting both player safety and tax receipts. The BGC echoed this concern, arguing that if the regulated market is made less competitive through higher taxes or intrusive checks, customers will not stop betting but will simply move to the black market.

The debate centres on whether increased regulatory friction genuinely protects vulnerable gamblers or inadvertently channels them toward operators with no consumer safeguards. With the Commission delaying its decision and promising further communication in due course, the industry remains in a state of regulatory uncertainty as black market stakes continue their upward trajectory.

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Sources

This article draws from primary regulator statements, independent research, and industry body responses:

The black market is not a distant threat. It is growing fast, becoming more visible, and attracting billions of pounds in stakes from British customers. By 2028, almost one in five pounds staked online could be with illegal operators.

— Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive, Betting and Gaming Council · Statement on H2 Gambling Capital Research, May 2026