Prediction Markets Face Nine-Nation EU Gambling Crackdown

⏱ 3 min read

On 18 June 2026, gambling regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland issued a coordinated joint statement targeting unlicensed prediction market platforms across the continent. The action coincided with the opening phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which analysts at H2 Gambling Capital project will attract $60 billion in regulated bets globally — a 71% jump on Qatar 2022.

The trigger is unmistakable: prediction market trading reached $8.6 billion in April 2026 as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi expanded aggressively into European markets without local gambling licences. Spain moved first among the signatories, ordering ISPs to block both platforms on 26 May 2026. The joint statement escalated that national action into a continent-wide enforcement pledge, covering advertising, licensing compliance, and betting integrity throughout the tournament.

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Prediction Markets: What the Joint Statement Says

The statement, formally published through France's Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), identifies four core risks that regulators say make these platforms an unlicensed gambling product. First, they operate around the clock with no mandatory session breaks. Second, the only ceiling on a user's exposure is the amount they choose to stake — there are no operator-set spending limits. Third, age and identity verification falls well short of licensed-market standards. Fourth, markets spanning politics, geopolitics, and sport carry heightened manipulation and insider-trading risks.

Regulators characterised the combination as a significant addictive cycle, amplified by the social-sharing and viral mechanics borrowed from crypto-native trading platforms. Planned enforcement measures range from formal warnings and advertising restrictions through to service suspensions, fines, and account freezes — with specific attention to operators relying on offshore or decentralised crypto licences to skirt national gambling laws.

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Country-by-Country Enforcement Map

Several signatories had already moved before publishing the collective warning. The Dutch KSA formally classified Polymarket as illegal gambling; Hungary and Romania blocked platform access, with Romania acting amid a surge in election-result trading. Portugal's SRIJ expelled Polymarket following its own national election. Italy's ADM issued a full blackout order in October 2025, then shifted to a hybrid arrangement in December 2025 after the Regional Administrative Court of Lazio sought legal clarity on whether event contracts constitute gambling under Italian law. The platform became viewable again, but active trading remained barred pending the court's decision.

Country	Regulator	Most Recent Action	Status — June 2026
Spain	DGOJ	ISP block on Polymarket & Kalshi ordered 26 May 2026	Blocked — investigation ongoing
France	ANJ	Geoblocking + "Zone à risques" consumer campaign (3 June 2026)	Blocked
Netherlands	KSA	Classified Polymarket as illegal gambling; stepped-up ad monitoring	Blocked
Portugal	SRIJ	Expelled Polymarket following national election	Blocked
Italy	ADM	Blackout Oct 2025; hybrid court order Dec 2025	Restricted (view-only)
Hungary	SZRT	Platform access blocked nationally	Blocked
Romania	ONJN	Blacklisted amid election-betting surge	Blocked
Germany	GGL	Consumer warning issued; advertising under review	Warning
Switzerland	Gespa	Pledged to block all unlicensed foreign sites	Blocking
Gibraltar	GGC	Granted first European prediction market licence to ADI Predictstreet	Licensing ✓
Malta	MGA	Economy minister exploring licensing framework (March 2026)	Evaluating

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Sports Federations in the Crosshairs

The statement carries a pointed warning for sports organisations. Regulators explicitly told clubs, leagues, and federations to verify that any prediction market partner holds a valid local licence before signing commercial deals. The warning lands at a commercially sensitive moment: Kalshi secured a deal with the Asociación del Fútbol Argentino (AFA) for the World Cup, deploying Lionel Messi in its marketing. For sports organisations operating in signatory territories, partnerships with unlicensed platforms now carry clear regulatory risk — including the prospect of being caught by enforcement actions directed at those platforms' advertising networks.

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What This Means for Licensed Operators

Licensed sportsbooks have a direct commercial interest in this enforcement drive. Prediction markets have taken betting wallet share through event-contract mechanics that feel distinct from traditional wagering but compete for the same disposable income. France's ANJ projected domestic World Cup stakes of €1.2 billion — up from €900 million in Qatar 2022 — and recorded a 25% year-on-year rise in operator marketing budgets ahead of the tournament, with 41% of French viewers planning to place a monetary bet. Enforcement action that removes unlicensed competition from digital channels and sponsorship improves conditions for operators who have already absorbed the full cost of regulatory compliance.

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Malta, Gibraltar and the Licensing Divide

The nine-nation coalition faces a structural obstacle: not every European regulator is aligned. Gibraltar licensed ADI Predictstreet, which went live in June 2026 and secured the role of FIFA's official prediction market partner for the tournament — the first legally operating prediction market in Europe. Malta signalled in March 2026 it was "actively exploring" prediction markets as an area of commercial opportunity. Without a pan-European framework, a licence from a permissive jurisdiction can still be used to advertise across borders into markets where the same product is blocked. Nine regulators pursuing platforms operating on decentralised crypto infrastructure across 27 different legal systems is a significantly harder enforcement proposition than the joint warning's unified language suggests.

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Sources

Primary regulatory and official sources are listed first, followed by specialist trade coverage. All accessed June 2026.

The illegal and legal markets are communicating vessels.

— KSA spokesperson, Kansspelautoriteit (Netherlands Gambling Authority) · On prediction market enforcement strategy, June 2026