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Brazil Bifurcates: iOS Greenlight for Licensed Operators, Prediction Markets Banned in Same Week

CMN Resolution 5,298 took effect May 4 cutting off Kalshi, Polymarket, and 27 other prediction platforms — four days later Apple opened the Brazilian App Store to SPA-licensed sportsbooks for the first time.

Category: iGaming News - Global · By Growl Games Editorial Team · Wed May 13 2026 · Updated Thu Jul 23 2026

Brazil Bifurcates: iOS Greenlight for Licensed Operators, Prediction Markets Banned in Same Week

Table of Contents

Summary

The world's third-largest regulated gambling market made two consequential moves within four days. On May 4, 2026, Brazil's National Monetary Council (CMN) Resolution 5,298 came into force, banning all derivative contracts not backed by an economic or financial benchmark — a definition specifically designed to exclude event contracts tied to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, and cultural outcomes. On May 8, Apple updated its developer guidance to allow licensed fixed-odds betting apps in the Brazilian App Store for the first time, conditional on a valid licence from the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA). Together the two moves define Brazil as the most clearly bifurcated regulated gambling market in the world heading into the FIFA World Cup: licensed operators are now better served than at any point since regulation launched, while unlicensed prediction-market and grey channels have been actively cut off.

The Prediction Market Ban

CMN Resolution 5,298, adopted on April 24, 2026 and signed by Banco Central do Brasil President Gabriel Galípolo, restricts the organisation and functioning of the derivatives market in Brazil to contracts whose underlying assets are economic or financial benchmarks — interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, securities indices, and listed securities. Contracts tied to real sporting events, virtual gaming events, political or electoral outcomes, and social or cultural events are prohibited. The resolution took effect on May 4. Brazil's Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) was given complementary supervisory powers. Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated the platforms had been "competing irregularly with licensed sports-betting operators" by presenting wagering products as financial instruments. Brazilian telecommunications regulator Anatel began blocking access to non-compliant platforms in late April; 27 to 28 prediction-market sites have been actioned, with Brazilian press naming Polymarket, Kalshi, and Kalshi's local partnership with XP Inc. among those affected. Brazil becomes the third Latin American country to restrict event-based prediction markets after Argentina and Colombia.

Apple Opens the App Store

On May 8, Apple's Developer portal published a notice confirming that apps with fixed-odds betting features may now be distributed on the Brazilian App Store, provided the developer holds a valid SPA fixed-odds betting licence. The change applies exclusively to the Brazilian storefront. Operators must submit a new app version (not merely updated metadata) to trigger licence verification, attach SPA authorisation documentation in the App Review Information section, and accept automatic assignment of an 18+ age rating in Brazil when "gambling" is selected in the age-rating questionnaire. The move ends a period in which the iOS ecosystem maintained stricter restrictions on betting apps in Brazil than in comparable European regulated markets, pushing licensed operators toward mobile-web versions and Progressive Web Apps in a market where smartphones are the primary access point. The industry's reading is that the policy update represents international recognition by one of the world's largest technology gatekeepers of Brazil's regulatory framework.

Market Size and Operator Base

Brazil's regulated gambling market generated approximately €5.96 billion (R$36+ billion) in 2025, the first full year of operation under Law 14.790/2023 and the SPA licensing regime. Seventy-eight operators hold licences across 138 active brands. The SIGAP centralised monitoring system, run out of the Ministry of Finance, processes near-real-time data feeds from every licensed operator covering wager placement, settlement, deposits, withdrawals, bonuses, and KYC records, with every transaction tagged to a unique CPF (taxpayer registry) identifier. Each licensed operator is also required to use the ".bet.br" domain extension. Federal tax revenue from betting rose from R$38 million in 2024 to R$6.8 billion in 2025 according to Receita Federal data cited by IEPS. A Senate Committee proposal would raise the gambling licence tax rate from 12% to 18% of gross gaming revenue, phased in to 15% by 2027 and 18% by 2028.

Contrast With the United States

The Brazilian moves contrast sharply with current US regulatory direction. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking that points toward a more permissive framework for event contracts; the Third Circuit affirmed an injunction in favour of Kalshi against New Jersey on April 6, 2026; and DraftKings and Flutter both used their Q1 2026 earnings releases this past week to commit substantial investment to FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions respectively, including a combined $300+ million in 2026 EBITDA losses on prediction-market build-out. Brazil's CMN has reached the opposite conclusion: event-based prediction contracts are gambling, not derivatives, and are out. Portugal earlier restricted Polymarket on similar grounds. Brazil's enforcement, however, is faster and more direct than the U.S. state-by-state model — Anatel blocking, Finance Ministry coordination with financial institutions, and CVM supervision close the perimeter in days rather than years.

The World Cup Backdrop

The timing matters. The FIFA World Cup co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico runs through June and July 2026, with Brazil among the strongest commercial markets for football wagering globally. Two-thirds of Brazilian licensed operator revenue is sports betting, of which a dominant share is football. The prediction-market ban removes a parallel channel that had been positioning itself for the tournament; the Apple change gives licensed operators native iOS distribution for the first time in time for the event. Combined, Brazilian regulators have engineered a deliberate funnel: World Cup betting demand will route through SPA-licensed operators on regulated rails, with Receita Federal data integration via SIGAP capturing the resulting tax base.

What It Means

For licensed Brazilian operators, the dual moves are unambiguously favourable: native iOS distribution, removal of prediction-market competition, and a clearly defined enforcement perimeter ahead of peak betting demand. For prediction-market operators, Brazil now sits alongside Argentina, Colombia, and Portugal as a closed market — and an explicit policy precedent that other emerging-market regulators are watching. For Apple, the Brazil change adds a major regulated market to its compliant-betting roster and signals how iOS gambling distribution will work in formalising markets globally. For offshore operators serving Brazilian users without an SPA licence, the structural position has hardened: payment, telecom, and now app-distribution chokepoints are all closed. The contrast with the United States is the broader signal. Two of the world's largest regulated gambling markets are heading in opposite directions on event contracts in the same week — the United States toward permissive federal oversight via CFTC-designated contract markets, Brazil toward categorical exclusion via banking regulation. Operators with global ambitions now need a per-market thesis on which model prevails.

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