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2026 FIFA World Cup Set to Become Largest Online Betting Event in History

With four weeks to kickoff, sportsbooks and prediction markets project up to $5.47 billion in legal global wagering, while a fresh Dana White letter to Trump escalates a US tax dispute that operators say could drive bettors offshore.

Category: iGaming News - Global · By Growl Games Editorial Team · Fri May 15 2026 · Updated Thu Jul 23 2026

2026 FIFA World Cup Set to Become Largest Online Betting Event in History

Contents

1. Summary

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, kicking off 11 June across the United States, Canada and Mexico, is on track to become the largest online betting event in history. Industry analysts and Paysafe project up to $3.1 billion in US legal handle alone, with combined legal and on-chain wagering totalling roughly $5.47 billion. Several stories converged this past week: BetMGM published 13 May data showing France and Kylian Mbappé as runaway futures favourites, while UFC President Dana White's 11 May letter to Donald Trump — first reported 13 May — threw the US sports-betting industry's tax fight back into the headlines just as World Cup wagering ramps up.

A Paysafe survey indicates 29% of US bettors will wager on a World Cup for the first time, and approximately 60% of global fans with legal access plan to bet online. Industry analysts estimate US legal handle alone will land between $2.5 billion and $3.1 billion — more than double the 2022 Qatar handle. Roughly 40% of that volume is expected to come through mobile sportsbooks in US states that weren't operational during the last cycle. Prediction-market platforms add a forecast $2.37 billion in peripheral on-chain volume, taking the combined legal and crypto-native handle to about $5.47 billion. FIFA projects a global audience above six billion across the six-week event.

3. 48 Teams, 104 Matches, Three Host Nations

The tournament expands to 48 teams from 32, with 104 matches across 16 venues in the US, Canada and Mexico. The format introduces 12 groups of four, a new Round of 32, and eight third-place qualifiers. Caesars Sportsbook's head of soccer Mark Bickerdike has flagged "only five rest days" across six weeks. Operators are bracing for roughly 55% of total handle to come from in-play wagers — a step-change from the ~35% in-play share seen in Qatar 2022, according to Kambi's 2025 Sports Betting Trends Report. Bet-builder usage has surged, with 88% of Super Bowl pre-match wagers built via bet builder including a prop bet, and AI-driven personalisation tools maturing in time for tournament scale.

4. Dana White, Trump, and the OBBBA Tax Fight

UFC President and CEO Dana White sent a letter to President Donald Trump dated 11 May 2026, urging him to support repealing the 90% cap on gambling-loss deductions embedded in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which took effect 1 January. The letter, first reported 13 May by gambling journalist Dustin Gouker and confirmed by the UFC to ESPN, argues the cap creates "phantom income" — bettors who break even can still owe federal tax — and is pushing volume to offshore operators ahead of World Cup season.

On Kalshi, the contract for repeal before 2027 jumped roughly 24 points to 39% after the letter surfaced. On Polymarket, the same market briefly spiked from 21% to 59% before settling near 36%. The American Gaming Association publicly backed White's intervention. Three bills aimed at restoring the full deduction — Rep. Dina Titus's FAIR BET Act, Rep. Steven Horsford's FULL HOUSE Act, and Rep. Andy Barr's WAGER Act — sit before the House Ways and Means Committee, which Punchbowl News reports is preparing a sports-related tax hearing in late spring or early summer.

5. Prediction Markets Enter the World Cup

For the first time, a major World Cup arrives with regulated US prediction-market platforms operating in parallel to traditional sportsbooks. FIFA named ADI Predictstreet its official prediction market for 2026 earlier this year. Kalshi, recently valued at $22 billion after a TCV-led round, has secured distribution and media partnerships including Madison Square Garden and Fox Corporation. Aggregate notional volume across digital prediction markets has surged past $44 billion, with weekly volume topping $5 billion on multiple occasions. The unresolved jurisdictional fight between the CFTC and state attorneys general — which saw a US District Court permanently block Arizona's enforcement against Kalshi on 5 May — means World Cup contracts will trade on every CFTC-registered DCM during the tournament.

6. Where the Money Is Going Now

BetMGM data published 13 May has France winning futures at +450, up sharply from an opening +600 on heavy backing — the operator reports France currently holds 19.6% of the total winner handle. Spain leads the consensus at most US books, with England, Brazil and Argentina rounding out the top five. In the Golden Boot market, Kylian Mbappé is favoured at +600 and accounts for 23.5% of tickets and 36.8% of total handle, with Spain's Lamine Yamal a distant second at roughly 13.7% on both metrics. Operators are watching for the standard host-nation public-money effects, particularly on the US team, where lines historically inflate against mid-tier opposition. New Jersey lawmakers, hosting eight matches including the final at MetLife Stadium, have introduced AB4838 proposing a 10% surcharge on World Cup-related sports-betting revenue from 11 June through 19 July.

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